New York Arms Race

With the start of Spring Training, there's a feeling of anticipation in the air even with the weather still frigid in New York. With the Yankees and Mets players reporting to Tampa and Port St. Lucie, respectively, fans of both teams can start to dream about the upcoming season. Along with this comes more of my attention diverted to sports radio podcasts.

WFAN radio host Mike Francesa recently spoke with Mets beat reporter Ed Coleman about the state of the Mets, and one of the things I found difficult to understand was his pessimism around the Mets starting rotation as compared to the Yankees, which is largely why he doesn't believe the Mets will make the playoffs. I'm a Yankee fan, but it seems to me that Francesa, who's a big-time Yankee fan might not be quite objective on the matter. Here's part of Francesa's rant:

"[The Mets] have improved the bullpen... but who's going to win 15 games other than Santana? If you look at the Yankees, I can give you five guys, and all of those five could win 15 games. On the Mets - Pelfrey, is he a given for 15 games? No. Maine, is he a given for 15 games? No. Other than Santana, where is your starting pitcher who is going to win 15 games?"

Off the bat, you need to notice how Francesa subtly changes the criteria. He first challenges "who's going to win 15 games" on the Mets, but lowers the bar when to "who could win 15 games" when it comes to the Yankees. It's a very different question. So let's look at the two projected starting rotations and evaluate:

New York Yankees
1. C.C. Sabathia - will be stud, but is moving into a better hitting league and a very good hitting division. You could make an argument that his numbers will worsen a little, but he'll still be excellent. He can win 15 games, no sweat.
2. Chien-Ming Wang - the pride of Taiwan has had some terrific seasons, but he's coming off of a foot surgery which knocked him out of the last two-thirds of last season. Isn't it fair to consider him a question mark? Could he win 15 games? Sure, but given his recovery I'm not sure it's a lock.
3. A.J. Burnett - great pitcher and fantastic stuff. But the guy hasn't pitched a full season healthy except for last year. He's another pitcher who could 15 games easily, but don't you need to factor in a terrible injury history? He's as likely to go on the DL in July and miss the rest of the season.
4. Andy Pettitte - a bulldog who has been consistently excellent, but this isn't the Pettitte of 1996 - 2001. Pettitte faded badly in the second half of last year, and pitching the full year he won 14 games. He's another year older, so how is he a lock to win 15 games?
5. Joba Chamberlain - the guy oozes talent and has nasty stuff, but he hasn't pitched more than 100 innings in the major leagues, and he won 4 games last year. How can you say he'll win 15 games with great confidence?


New York Mets
1. Johan Santana - he's probably the best pitcher in baseball. He would have won 20+ games last year if he had a half-decent bullpen. With K-Rod and Putz he should get his 20 games without a problem.
2. Mike Pelfrey - Pelfrey's finally coming into his own pitching to the potential that made him a high first-round draft pick. Wang might be more likely to win 15, but not by much given that he's coming off an injury.
3. John Maine - Maine won 15 games two years ago, and was on pace to match that last year until he got hurt. He's not much less likely to hit 15 victories than Burnett. Maine's been hurt one season, Burnett's been hurt 9 of the past 10.
4. Oliver Perez - amazing stuff and can be unhittable or terrible on alternating starts. He's as likely to win 20 games as he is to win 10. His likelihood of winning 15 isn't much different than Pettitte's - it's a choice between stuff and consistency.
5. Livan Hernandez - this guy's been around forever and while he's had some good years, he's mostly labeled as an "innings eater", which is code for "he's not that great". But he's hit double-digit wins in the past nine, count 'em, nine years. Is he really less likely to hit 15 wins than Joba, who has yet to pitch 100 innings in the major leagues?

So there it is - I'm not saying that the Mets have a better starting rotation than the Yankees. I just don't think it's quite as lopsided as Francesa implies it is.