Saturday, April 11, 2009

2009 Major League Baseball Preview

Sorry that this preview and my fearless predictions are coming a little late. I suppose you can accuse me of cheating by using the first five days of the season as a viable prediction of future performance for the next 159 or so games for each team. By that same logic, I'm going to panic like the stereotypical Yankee fan about C.C. Sabathia's and Mark Teixeira's inauspicious debuts and predict that Sabathia will finish the season 2-14 and Teixeira will bat somewhere around .236 with 14 home runs and 47 runs batted in, leading to a final Yankee record of 56 wins and 106 losses. Whatever.

I love each opening day. There's something terrific about seeing the ace of each team face off against the ace of another team to christen the season. The pitching matchups are excellent, and there's an optimism that every team has that they have some possibility of sneaking into the playoffs. Unless you're the Washington Nationals, of course.

In any case, here's what I see in the future:

American League East
It's not a stretch to say that the top three teams in baseball, let alone the American League make their home in the American League East. The Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees all bring fantastic teams with strong pitching and good hitting. The Yankees are going to be tough to catch in a 162-game season and there offense is without match, even with A-Rod missing some time to start the season. As for the Wild Card, I'm going to pick the Red Sox for the division on the strength of a great starting rotation with at least one of the pitchers that they picked off the scrap heap (John Smoltz or Brad Penny) regaining their all-star form, and with the Rays' young pitching staff experiencing some residual weariness after pitching through late October last year.

American League Central
The Minnesota Twins are a one of those franchises that has very little money but always seem to field a contending team each year. The haul they got from the Mets in the Santana trade will continue to pay dividends, with Carlos Gomez and Denard Span becoming a lethal combination of great defense of speed and Joe Maurer and Justin Morneau's steady veteran production. They'll edge out the White Sox in another tight division race down the finish.

American League West
It's been safe to pencil in the Angels into this slot in recent years, and even with the departures of Teixeira and K-Rod, this team with top-notch starting pitching (Lackey, Escobar, Santana Saunders, Weaver) and a strong bullpen (Shields, Fuentes) is my choice to come out of the West. I do anticipate that there will be a nice "Let's win it for Nick Adenhart" storyline, as well.

National League East
The heated rivalry between the Mets and Phillies will continue, but with the Phillies a little less hungry after winning it all last year, and hamstrung by the early injuries to their ace Cole Hamels and star second baseman Chase Utley, the Mets will finally be able to regain the division crown that they haven't held since 2006. The Phillies and Braves will make some noise, but at the end neither of them end up making the playoffs.

National League Central
The Cubs are loaded, and will run away with this division. Unfortunately, they'll fizzle out again in the playoffs, leading to more fodder for columnists to talk about the Curse of the Billy Goat and Steve Bartman.

National League West
Manny-mania continues in Los Angeles, and the Dodgers will ride the strong bat of Manny Ramirez and an up and coming group of young studs like Russell Martin, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp to a wild card berth. What will keep them from winning the division outright is a pitching staff which will feel the loss of Derek Lowe, forcing pitchers like Hiroki Kuroda, Chad Billingsley, and Clayton Kershaw to step up into roles a little less comfortable for them. The Arizona Diamondbacks will take the crown, with a killer 1-2 punch of Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, with Jon Garland filling in nicely for an aging Randy Johnson. The balanced attack spearheaded by youngsters Stephen Drew, Chris Young and Justin Upton will provide just enough offense to get them over the top.

PLAYOFFS
The Yankees will squeak by the Twins in a five game series, with Sabathia topping Francisco Liriano in a tight Game 5. The Red Sox continue their mastery over the Angels, setting up yet another Yankees vs. Red Sox clash. Despite increasingly large forks sticking out of David Ortiz and Mike Lowell, Dustin Pedroia does just enough to take advantage of shaky Yankees starting pitching (Sabathia's never been a great postseason pitcher) to continue their postseason winning streak against their hated rivals.

On the senior circuit, the Cubs again fizzle again the postseason against the Diamondbacks, leading to the more columns about the cursed Cubs with a repeat of Ted Lilly slamming his glove down in disgust after giving up a mammoth homer to Chris Young. The Mets slip past the Dodgers with two dominating performances by Johan Santana and a bit of clutch hitting in an eighteen inning game by surprise pinch hitter Livan Hernandez. They follow this series win with a surprisingly easy sweep of the Diamondbacks.

WORLD SERIES
The Mets and Red Sox produce an encore of 1986, and with the Red Sox up by a run in the possibly clinching Game 6, Jonathan Papelbon serves us a devestating three run walk-off homer to Carlos Delgado. The Red Sox, emotionally spent, get crushed in Game 7 as the Mets win their third World Championship.

If you're a Mets fan, don't get too excited. I was pretty far off with my NCAA Tournament predictions.

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