Thursday, March 19, 2009

2009 March Madness Time!

It's time for the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, where people start filling in their brackets and put petty cash and their bragging rights on the line. All in all I thought the selection committee did a bang-up job of getting the right teams in. Certainly not as bad as the past travesties around the exclusion of well deserving mid-majors like Drexel in 2007. Here's how I see things unfolding:

MIDWEST REGIONAL
I'm anticipating just a couple of minor upsets in this bracket, with Arizona taking out Utah and USC beating a Boston College team that infamously lost to Harvard at home. Louisville is peaking at the right time, and after winning the Big East tournament, I think they'll be tough to beat, especially given a weak bracket at the top, where I'm predicting early departures for a Kansas team which is not nearly as good as the team that won it all last year and a Michigan State team that was the best of the pack of a mediocre Big Ten.

Regional Final
Louisville over West Virginia

WEST REGIONAL
I'm predicting that Cornell continues the Ivy League streak of tournament futility in losing to Missouri. This bracket isn't going to see a lot of upsets, and I see each higher seed holding serve through the second round. Connecticut just isn't the same team without Jerome Dyson, and while their path isn't terribly arduous, I think they'll fall to a Memphis team which is the best defensive team in the entire tournament.

Regional Final
Memphis over Connecticut

EAST REGIONAL
Pittsburgh, notwithstanding their early departure from the Big East tournament, will be a force to be reckoned with, and aside from a couple of minor upsets, like Tennessee taking out Oklahoma State, I think the bracket will go through pretty much as planned. I was very tempted to have Texas knock out Duke in the second round, but I realized I was projected more what I was hoping as opposed to being objective. I similarly am hoping Villanova will take out Duke in the round of 16, though I think Duke is peaking at the right time with their ACC Tournament championship. I'll be happy eventually when DeJuan Blair helps muscle the Panthers past the Dukies in the regional final.

Regional Final
Pittsburgh over Duke

SOUTH REGIONAL
I'm predicting a couple of upsets in the first round, with former Penn coach Fran Dunphy and Dionte Christmas beating Arizona State and cagey coach John Beilein figuring out some sort of scheme to push Michigan past chronic tournament underachievers Clemson. I'm also looking for Syracuse to continue to ride Johnny Flynn and what's left of their adrenaline all the way past Oklahoma to the regional final, where they'll run out of gas against a strong North Carolina team.

Regional Final
North Carolina over Syracuse

NATIONAL SEMIFINALS
Pittsburgh might not play enough offense, and North Carolina doesn't play enough defense. The sports corollary is that a strong defense always beats a strong offense. I think this game proves to be the exception as North Carolina manages to squeak by a Pittsburgh team which can't throw the ball into the ocean. North Carolina over Pittsburgh

Louisville coach Rick Pitino and Memphis coach John Calipari are both snappy dressing Italian-American men with great college coaching records and bad stints in the NBA who happen to lead excellent teams. This semifinal will be a classic, but the game comes down to guts, and the Louisville Cardinals will have the advantage in toughness after fighting through that steel cage match known as the Big East. Louisville over Memphis

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
North Carolina, after getting waon down with tough fought victories over Big East teams Syracuse and Pittsburgh finally run out of gas, with a still-recovering Ty Lawson unable to handle the high pressure speed and defense of Louisville. Rick Pitino celebrates another National Championship, and in the middle of his victory speech strangely asks CBS to cease playing replays of "the shot" by Christian Laettner and his subsequent reaction every March. Louisville over North Carolina

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