Here are my predictions for the 2009 NBA Playoffs:
Eastern Conference
First Round
(1) Cleveland (66-16) vs. (8) Detroit (39-43)
Let's see, the Cavaliers were historically good at home, and Detroit limps in as a sub-.500 team without Allen Iverson (which might be a good thing depending on how you view team chemistry. It's a mismatch, anyway. Cavs in four.
(2) Boston (62-20) vs. (7) Chicago (41-41)
There's a small chance that a Kevin Garnett's recovery from a balky knee might keep the Big Three from firing on all cylinders, but you have to give credit for the Celtics from securing the #2 seed against a very motivated Orlando team essentially without Garnett. I do think that some of Chicago's youth could give Boston some trouble the same way Atlanta did last year, but Boston still pulls it out in a surprisingly close series. Celtics in seven.
(3) Orlando (59-23) vs. (6) Philadelphia (41-41)
Dwight Howard is a monster in a middle, but thankfully the Sixers have Elton Brand to neutralize him. Oops, wait, never mind. The story for the Sixers this year is that they're actually better without Brand, playing their running and gunning game. Unfortunately, this leads them susceptible to dominant big men, and they don't get much more dominant than Howard. Magic in five.
(4) Atlanta (47-35) vs. (5) Miami (43-39)
This is a toss-up. Atlanta is a very good playoff team at home, as they showed last year, and they definitely have some talent. On the other hand, Miami has Dwyane Wade. I mean, the guy is that good that his sole presence really could be difference despite the fact that I think he plays for the weaker team that doesn't have home court advantage. On a hunch, I'll take the Heat. Heat in seven.
Conference Semifinals
(1) Cleveland (66-16) vs. (5) Miami (43-39)
A great match up with two legitimate MVP candidates, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. The difference is that Cleveland is lethal on their home court, and LeBron has a far superior supporting cast. Cleveland in five.
(2) Boston (62-20) vs. (3) Orlando (59-23)
Here's where the loss of Kevin Garnett really starts to hurt. It's one thing to grind out four wins against a Chicago team with no dominant big man. It's another thing altogether to face up against Dwight Howard without a legitimate low-post defender (no, I'm not counting Kendrick Perkins or Glen Davis) along with Orlando's legion of lethal shooters. Well Celtics fans, you'll always have the rings from 2008. Orlando in six.
Conference Finals
(1) Cleveland (66-16) vs. (3) Orlando (59-23)
I was trying to defy conventional thinking a little bit and pick against the team with the biggest star. I was trying to say that Rafer Alston neutralizes Mo Williams and Rashard Lewis will make his matchup with LeBron a little closer than Dwight Howard's predicted domination over Anderson Varejao and Ben Wallace. I can't do it. I can't pick against LeBron, not with the Cavs holding home court. Cavs in seven.
Western Conference
First Round
(1) Los Angeles (65-17) vs. (8) Utah (48-34)
The good news for the Lakers is that Kobe and the crew are looking fantastic. The better news is that with a first round matchup with the Jazz, Kobe's going to be hard pressed to get into trouble off the court. Also, the Jazz absolutely stink away from home. Lakers in five.
(2) Denver (54-28) vs. (7) New Orleans (49-33)
Wow, how well did that Iverson for Billups trade work out for those Nuggets, eh? The fact that the perennial 7th or 8th seeded Nuggets vaulted to the 2nd seed and the Pistons basically imploded says a little about the relative merits of those two players, wouldn't you say? That being said, I don't really thing that the Nuggets are a team that are elite. Fortunately for them, neither are the Hornets, who seem to have lost all their mojo from last year. Nuggets in six.
(3) San Antonio (54-28) vs. (6) Dallas (50-32)
No Ginobili, but the Spurs still have Duncan and Parker. I think Dallas has a chance to surprise some people in the playoffs, with strong guard play, the always imposing Dirk, and probably a sense of urgency to break through in what is a rapidly closing window. Besides, they need desperately to justify that Devin Harris for Jason Kidd trade. It's probably too late for that, but at least they can say that Kidd helped them get past the first round. Mavs in six.
(4) Portland (54-28) vs. (5) Houston (53-29)
How about those kids on the Blazers? They have a young and exciting core, but Houston has Yao, Ron Artest, and a host of complementary players that just seem to fit. The red-hot Blazers will end up breaking hearts of billions in China when they bounce the Rockets in the first round. I put the chances at 50/50 that Ron Artest goes crazy during some part of the playoffs. Blazers in seven.
Conference Semifinals
(1) Los Angeles (65-17) vs. (4) Portland (54-28)
Portland is nice up and coming young team. Unfortunately for them, what they aspire to be is essentially what the Lakers are right now. It was a nice little run, but Paul Allen's team can chalk it up to a nice learning experience as they get mauled by a Lakers team hitting their stride. Lakers in five.
(2) Denver (54-28) vs. (6) Dallas (50-32)
As I said, I don't believe in this Denver team. Here's where the experience of the Mavericks, not including their propensity to choke in the postseason, pays off. Steady guard play and lots of Mark Cuban facial expressions caught on air lead to a Mavs victory, as David Stern grits his teeth. Mavs in six.
Conference Finals
(1) Los Angeles (65-17) vs. (6) Dallas (50-32)
David Stern tries to contain his smug sense of satisfaction as Kobe knocks out Mark Cuban's band of merry Mavs. At this point, the Mavericks veteran experience becomes veteran fatigue as the Lakers blow them out. Lakers in four.
NBA Finals
(1) Cleveland (66-16) vs. (1) Los Angeles (65-17)
Let's face it. Unless you live in Boston or any other city which "reasonably" has a chance of upsetting either of these team, this is the marquis matchup. Madison Avenue wants it, David Stern wants it, and so do most sports fans. To see Kobe and LeBron going up against each other to the death for the trophy is what we'd like to see, and we'll end up seeing Kobe lifting the trophy, leaving a frustrated LeBron resigned to simply cashing in and signing with the Knicks as a free agent. Okay, I'm projecting a little, but why not? Lakers in six.
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