Suburban Family Guy’s 2012 MLB Playoff Preview

The good news is that my beloved Yankees are back in the playoffs for the fourth year in a row. The bad news is that this means that I’ll be bleary-eyed at work the next morning games creep later and later into the night thanks to manager Joe Girardi’s obsessive use of “the binder” to seek out positive relief pitching and pinch hitting matchups. So while Girardi makes his double-switch and third pitching change of the inning, I’ll look up at the clock reading midnight as I grumble about an early morning meeting the next day. And this is going to be brutal if the Yankees end up playing games away at the Oakland A’s, where those games will end at 2am or so.

In any case, here are my picks:

AL Play-In Game: Rangers over Orioles. The call here is that the Rangers shake off their shock of choking away a seemingly insurmountable AL West lead. What helps them is getting to play the “win or go home game” at home, and that they have Yu Darvish on the mound while the Orioles counters with Joe Saunders, who has horrible numbers against the Rangers in Arlington. The Orioles surprised everyone this season, but coming home and having their ace on the mound shakes the Rangers out of their doldrums.

ALDS: Yankees over Rangers. The fact of the matter is that the Rangers pitching isn’t as good as it was last year, and their best pitcher will have been burned in the play-in game. The Yankees bats are clicking at the right time, and having home field advantage plus the opportunity to set their preferred starting rotation in order gives that Yankees the edge.

ALDS: Tigers over A’s. I think Justin Verlander wins both of his starts against the Rangers, leaving only one win required between Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello. Getting one win from three pretty good pitchers and a team with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder seems pretty likely. The A’s have been a terrific story and Billy Beane can again boast that he is indeed worthy of being portrayed by Brad Pitt in a major motion picture, but unfortunately, they’ve run into a team which has strikes out a lot of opponents – a bad omen when your own team is leading the league in strikeouts.

ALCS: Yankees over Tigers. On one hand, this seems like a fan-bias pick, given what I wrote about the Tigers vs. A’s matchup. The difference is that in a seven games, the other non-Justin Verlander starting pitchers” need to win two games. Also, the Yankees have a bona fide ace in C.C. Sabathia to counter Verlander. In a five game series, I’d probably pick the Tigers, but over seven I like the Yankees to prevail.

NL Play-In Game. Braves over Cardinals. Braves pitcher Kris Medlen is in the midst of an incredible streak where the Braves have won each of the 22 past games that he’s started. It’s bound to end at some point, but I don’t see it happening in a “win or go home” game at home. As for the Cardinals, they can still bask in that ridiculous run last year.

NLDS: Braves over Nationals. Imagine a scenario where the equally matched Braves and Nationals get to a deciding seventh game and the game runs into extra innings. It comes down to a battle of pitching staffs. As the game extends into the early morning, he Nationals fantasize about being able to pull out Stephen Strasburg to throw zeros on the scoreboard but instead have to trot out John Lannan. The Braves take the series, and the decision to sit Strasburg gets second-guessed (again) ad nausea.

NLDS: Reds over Giants. Yes, the Giants have great starting pitching. But the Reds starting pitching isn’t anything to sneeze at either, plus they actually can bash the ball with a tremendous lineup and play great defense. Reds win.

NLCS: Braves over Reds. The Reds should win this series. They’re a complete balanced team with good starting pitching, a shutdown closer, great defense and a mammoth offense. Oh, they’ll have home field advantage in this matchup as well. My gut just says that in the playoffs the best team doesn’t always win. This is one of those times.

World Series: Braves over Yankees. Remember when the Braves beat the Yankees in the World Series? Oh yeah, it never happened. The Yankees beat the Braves in ’96 and ’99 and the Yankee fan in me would like for that trend to continue. But the call here says that Chipper Jones gets his revenge in his farewell year. The Braves’ excellent starting pitching and bullpen stymie the Yankees offense as the Braves take the World Series in six games.